We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring the Mavericks and Celtics in game 5 of the NBA Finals. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+114)
Odds: +114
Probability: 59.7%
Projection: 3.5
Edge: 12.9%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Celtics game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the over 3-pointers prop market. Irving has averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game on the season, and has averaged 2.4 3PM per game in the 23/24 postseason. In the first two matchups against the Celtics, Kyrie fell apart, going 0/8 combined on 3-pointers at the Garden. In game three at home, Irving was able to rack up 4 3-pointers through 6 shots, only missing two. After going 1/6 on 3s in the most recent game, we can expect to see Kyrie amend for his 16.7% 3P% in tonight’s game.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 12.9% at +114 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best bet of the day.
2. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL REBOUNDS (+120)
Odds: +120
Probability: 54.8%
Projection: 5.4
Edge: 9.4%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
Our model has found the next best player bet, with Derrick White showing value in the over rebounds prop market. Our model has narrowed down Derrick White Over 4.5 Total rebounds as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, White has been able to rack up an average of 4.1 rebounds per game. Over the course of the conference finals, White was able to exceed this line in 2/4 games, racking up 4/5/4/6 rebounds respectively. In the regular season against the Mavericks, White has been able to average 5.5 rebounds per game. When playing them in the finals, White has been able to exceed this line 2/4 times, only falling one rebound short in G4.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Rebounds at +120 odds and an attractive 9.4% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
3. DANIEL GAFFORD OVER 4.5 TOTAL REBOUNDS (+122)
Odds: +122
Probability: 53.4%
Projection: 5.1
Edge: 8.3%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing has Daniel Gafford showing value in the over rebounds prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Gafford has been able to average 7.6 rebounds per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 5.1 rebounds in tonight’s matchup. Throughout the playoffs, Gafford has averaged 5.8 RPG. Against the Celtics in the finals, Gafford has been able to average 4.8 RPG through four games, racking up 4/3/9/3. In G2 of the finals, he had 9 rebounds, and was one of the most dominant players on the floor despite the loss. Our model projects he will rack up 5.1 tonight and will end up exceeding this line.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Daniel Gafford Over 4.5 Total Rebounds in tonight’s game, which gives us an 8.3% edge on the +122 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
4. AL HORFORD OVER 1.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-132)
Odds: -132
Probability: 63.7%
Projection: 2.8
Edge: 6.8%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA game 5 finals features Al Horford. With our betting bot finding value in Al Horford Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made.
Over the course of the 2023/24 postseason Horford has averaged 1.8 3-pointers per game, with a 1.5 3-point average against the Mavericks through the first four games of the finals. Our model predicts Horford will rack up a total of 2.8 3-pointers throughout tonights game exceeding his line. With a record of 1/2/1/2 over the last four games, our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Horford will rack up enough 3s to cover his line.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Al Horford Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with a detected edge of 6.8% and -132 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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