We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring the Celtics and Mavericks in the NBA Playoff Finals. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL REBOUNDS (+120)
Odds: +120
Probability: 55.9%
Projection: 5.6
Edge: 10.5%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for game one of the finals. The best player bet takes place in the Celtics vs Mavericks, with Derrick White showing value in the over rebounds prop market. Our model has narrowed down Derrick White Over 4.5 Total rebounds as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, White has been able to rack up an average of 4.1 rebounds per game. Over the course of the conference finals, White was able to exceed this line in 3/4 games, racking up 4/5/4/6 rebounds respectively. In the regular season against the Mavericks, White has been able to average 5.5 rebounds per game. When playing them in the finals, White has been able to exceed this line 2/3 times with him racking up 5/5/1 rebounds in the first three games of the series.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Rebounds at +120 odds and an attractive 10.5% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. AL HORFORD OVER 9.5 POINTS SCORED (+120)
Odds: +120
Probability: 54.9%
Projection: 11.8
Edge: 9.5%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Celtics vs Mavericks game, with Al Horford showing value in the over-points scored prop market. Horford has averaged 8.6 points per game on the season, and has averaged 9.5 points per game in the 23/24 postseason. Throughout the regular season against the mavericks, Horford has been able to average a total of 11.5 points per game through only two games and 29.5 minutes of playing time. With Porzingis unlikely to play tonight, Horford should see an uptick in minutes, which will hopefully be enough to see this number covered at + money.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Al Horford Over 9.5 Points Scored, with an edge of 9.5% at +120 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. LUKA DONCIC OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-122)
Odds: -122
Probability: 62.3%
Projection: 4.7
Edge: 7.3%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Celtics vs Mavericks game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Luka has been able to average 4.1 3-pointers per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 4.7 3’s in tonight’s matchup. Throughout the playoffs, Luka has averaged 3.3 3-pointers. Against the Celtics in the finals, Luka averaged 3.0 3-pointers racking up 1/4/4 through three games. Our model suspects that Luka’s shot volume will be big tonight, and this number should be too low.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-pointers in tonight’s game, which gives us an 7.3% edge on the -122 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. JAYSON TATUM OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 58%
Projection: 6.9
Edge: 5.6%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Jayson Tatum in the Celtics vs Mavericks showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 Total Assists.
Over the course of the 2023/24 postseason Tatum has averaged 6.2 assists per game, with a 7.3 assist average against the Mavericks through the first three games of the series. Although not scoring as much as he’d perhaps like to have been, he has been able to impact the game by sharing the rock, and with a projection of 6.9 assists tonight, our Basketball Forever Betting bot suspects that Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 Total Assists is a no sweat bet.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 5.6% and -110 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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