We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring the Celtics and Mavericks in the NBA Playoff Finals. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 60.7%
Projection: 3.6
Edge: 10.7%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for game one of the finals. The best player bet takes place in the Mavericks vs Celtics, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the over total 3-pointers made prop market. Our model has narrowed down Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, Irving has been able to rack up an average of 2.6 3-pointers per game. Over the course of round 3 of the playoffs, Irving was able to exceed this line in 3/5 games, racking up 4/1/3/4/0 in his last five. He will be on a mission back in front of a hostile Garden crowd, and should cook tonight.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made at +100 odds and an attractive 10.7% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. LUKA DONCIC OVER 8.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-115)
Odds: -115
Probability: 60.4%
Projection: 10.3
Edge: 6.9%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Celtics game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over total assists prop market. Luka has averaged 9.8 assists per game on the season, with an 8.8 assist average per game in the 23/24 postseason. Through the WCF against the Timberwolves, Luka averaged 8.2 assists per game. When matched up against the Celtics in the regular season – Luka was able to average a total of 12 assists through 2 games and 38 minutes of playing time. Our model suspects that there will be plenty of opportunity for Luka to exceed this line, as the Celtics look to blitz and double him at every opportunity, forcing the ball out of his hands.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 6.9% at -115 odds available on BetMGM Sportsbook.
3. KRISTAPS PORZINGIS OVER 15.5 POINTS SCORED (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 59.2%
Projection: 20.1
Edge: 6.8%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Mavericks vs Celtics game, with Kristaps Porzingis showing value in the over points prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Porzingis has been able to average 20.1 points per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 20.1 points in tonight’s matchup. Although being injured for most of the playoffs, Porzingis is expected to come back well rested. When matched up against the Mavericks in the regular season, Porzingis averaged 24ppg. With a projection of 20.1 and an average of 24 points against the Mavericks, our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that Porzingis will exceed his point line.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Kristaps Porzingis Over 15.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 6.8% edge on the -110 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
4. JAYSON TATUM OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-122)
Odds: -122
Probability: 61.6%
Projection: 3.6
Edge: 6.6%
Game: Mavericks vs Celtics (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Jayson Tatum in the Mavericks vs Celtics showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made.
Over the course of the 2023/24 postseason Tatum has averaged 2.1 3-pointers per game, with a 2.8 average against the Pacers in the East finals. In the last four postseason games that he’s played in he has racked up 3/5/1/2 3-pointers respectively, beating the line in 2/4 games. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that with both Tatum and Brown facilitating the offense, they will be able to play a lot of give and go, leading to lots of shots and points scored, exceeding Tatum’s 3-point line.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with a detected edge of 6.6% and -122 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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