We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+145)
Odds: +145
Probability: 56.3%
Projection: 3.1
Edge: 15.4%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves, with Karl-Anthony Towns showing value in the over total 3-pointers made prop market. Our model has narrowed down Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, KAT has been able to rack up an average of 1.9 3-pointers per game. In game 4 of the series, KAT stepped up, going 9/13 on FG and 4/5 on 3-point shots. Our model suspects that KAT will have a similar output tonight.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made at +145 odds and an attractive 15.4% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+110)
Odds: +110
Probability: 57.3%
Projection: 3.2
Edge: 9.7%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market. Irving has averaged 3 3-pointers per game on the season, with a 2.6 3pt average per game in the 23/24 postseason. Through the WCF, Kyrie has been able to average 2.0 3-pointers per game scoring 1/3/4/0 in his last four matchups. After only getting one triple last start, Our model believes that Irving will step up tonight, getting open for some easy dishes from Luka. The Basketball Forever betting bot suspects that Irving will play substantially better tonight and recommends placing a wager on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 9.7% at +110 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. KYRIE IRVING OVER 23.5 POINTS SCORED (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 59.5%
Projection: 28.2
Edge: 9.5%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the over points prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Irving has been able to average 25.6 points per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 28.2 points in tonight’s matchup. Throughout the postseason, Irving has been able to average a total of 22 points through 40 minutes per game. As stated in the rationale above, with Irving having a lower scoring game than average in the last matchup, our model suspects he will be able to turn up tonight, racking up points from the arc, midrange, and also driving to the basket. With a projection of 28.2 points, our Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Kyrie’s over points prop.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 9.5% edge on the +100 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. LUKA DONCIC OVER 30.5 POINTS SCORED (-102)
Odds: -102
Probability: 57.6%
Projection: 34.2
Edge: 7.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Luka Doncic in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points Scored.
Over the course of the 2023/24 postseason Doncic has averaged 28.3 points per game, with a 31.5 PPG average against the Timberwolves in the west finals. In the last four postseason games that he’s played in he has racked up 28/33/32/33 points respectively, beating the line in 3/4 games. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that with both Kyrie and Luka facilitating the offense, they will be able to play a lot of give and go, leading to points.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points Scored, with a detected edge of 7.1% and -102 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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