We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. NAZ REID OVER 1.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-135)
Odds: -135
Probability: 65%
Projection: 5.3
Edge: 12.4%
Game: Timberwolves vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
The best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Timberwolves vs Mavericks game, with Naz Reid showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 postseason against the Timberwolves, Reid has been able to play some good ball, averaging 17.3 points, with 3.7 3-pointers made per game. Our model predicts that with tonight being the fourth game of the series and possibly the Timberwolves last game of the 23/24 season, they are expected to come out hot with hopes of prolonging this series. Over the last three games against the Timberwolves, Reid has been able to hit 1/7/3 3-pointers in each game respectively. Our basketball forever betting bot suspects that with an average of 3.7 3-pointers per game against the Timberwolves, and a projection of 5.3 3s for tonight’s game, this is a must have bet.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Naz Reid Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made in tonight’s game, which gives us an 12.4%% edge on the -135 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. LUKA DONCIC OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+110)
Odds: +110
Probability: 55.5%
Projection: 4.0
Edge: 7.8%
Game: Timberwolves vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Timberwolves vs Mavericks game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over 3-pointers, made prop market. Doncic has been a solid option throughout the 23/24 postseason, averaging 4.1 3-pointers per game. Luka has been hot from the arc in the postseason, racking up 5/5/3 3-pointers over the last three games against the Timberwolves. Our model suspects that with an average of 4.1 and a projection of 4.0 3-pointers in tonights game, Luka will have no problem exceeding 3.5 3-pointers in potentially the last game of the season for the Timberwolves. When taking into account his projection and postseason average, our Basketball Forever betting bot suspects that this is a must have bet.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 7.8% at +110 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. LUKA DONCIC OVER 9.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+120)
Odds: +120
Probability: 54.9%
Projection: 10.4
Edge: 9.4%
Game: Timberwolves vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the next best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Timberwolves vs Mavericks, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over assists prop market. Our model has narrowed down Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, Doncic has been able to average a total of 9.0 assists per game. When facing off against the Timberwolves in the preseason however, this number drops to an average of 8.7 assists made per game. With tonight being possibly the final game in the series, our model suspects that Luka will be moving the ball, looking for teammates with favorable scoring matchups. We can also expect to see Kyrie and Luka play a lot go give and go throughout the game, leading to some unbelievable plays.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Total Assists at +120 odds and an attractive 9.4% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. LUKA DONCIC OVER 30.5 POINTS SCORED (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 58.1%
Projection: 34.5
Edge: 5.7%
Game: Timberwolves vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Luka Doncic in the Timberwolves vs Mavericks showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points Scored.
Over the course of the 2023/24 postseason against the Timberwolves, Doncic has averaged 32.7 points per game, with an average of 36.5 PPG in the regular season against the Wolves. Over the course of this round of the playoffs, Doncic was able to rack up 33/32/33 points over the last three games. Our Basketball Forever betting bot expects tonight to go very similarly due to the Mavs being able to move to the NBA Finals. Our model suspects that with tonight being the last game to move to the finals, the Mavs wont give the Timberwolves any chances to take the lead.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points Scored, with a detected edge of 5.7% and -110 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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