We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. LUKA DONCIC OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+154)
Odds: +154
Probability: 53.8%
Projection: 3.8
Edge: 14.5%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market. Our model has narrowed down Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 playoff season Doncic has been able to average a total of 3.0 3-pointers per game. When matched up against the Timberwolves, Luka has been able to average 3.5 3-point average throughout the regular season. In the first game of the series, Luka was able to rack up a total of 3 3-pointers on 10 attempts in 41 minutes of floor time. Our model suspects that Luka will be bombing tonight.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made at +154 odds and an attractive 14.5 edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. LUKA DONCIC OVER 8.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 62.4%
Projection: 10.7
Edge: 12.4%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over assists prop market. Doncic has averaged 9.8 assists per game on the season, with a 9.0 assist average in the 23/24 postseason. After getting 8/10/11/10/5 assists over his last five games, our model predicts that when the Mavs are on offense, Luka will be taking most of the defensive attention away from other players, leaving them open for some easier looks and Luka to rack up assists. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that this is a must have bet that Luka will have no trouble exceeded against the Timberwolves.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 12.4% at +100 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. ANTHONY EDWARDS OVER 6.5 TOTAL REBOUNDS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 55.7%
Projection: 7.5
Edge: 11.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Anthony Edwards showing value in the over rebounds prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 postseason Edwards has been able to average 6.6 rebounds per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 7.5 rebounds in tonight’s matchup. With the Mavericks leading the series 1-0, the Timberwolves are expected to fight hard for loose balls and rebounds, and the game will flow through Antman tonight.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Total Rebounds in tonight’s game, which gives us an 11.1% edge on the +124 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 20.5 POINTS SCORED (-102)
Odds: -102
Probability: 57.6%
Projection: 24.2
Edge: 7.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Karl-Anthony Towns in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Karl-Anthony Towns over 20.5 points scored.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season KAT has averaged 21.8 points per game, With a 18.6 PPG average in the postseason. When it comes to the Mavericks, throughout the regular season KAT has been able to average 21 points through 4 games. Our model suspects that after only getting 16 points in their last matchup (despite missing a number of open looks) that KAT will force the issue more tonight, covering the number in the process.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points Scored, with a detected edge of 7.1% and -102 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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