We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. T.J. MCCONNELL OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+116)
Odds: +116
Probability: 60.8%
Projection: 6.4
Edge: 14.5%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Pacers vs Celtics, with T.J. McConnell showing value in the over total assists prop market. Our model has narrowed down T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason McConnell has been able to rack up an average of 5.2 assists per game. During the regular season, when the Pacers would play the Celtics, McConnell was able to rack up an average of 5 APG through four games and 18 minutes of playing time. Our model suspects that with 4 assists last game, and higher usage tonight, this number may be a shade too low.
Our model recommends placing a wager on T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 Total Assists at +116 odds and an attractive 14.5% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. PAYTON PRITCHARD OVER 8.5 POINTS SCORED (+114)
Odds: +114
Probability: 56.6%
Projection: 11.7
Edge: 9.9%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Pacers vs Celtics game, with Payton Pritchard showing value in the over-points scored prop market. Pritchard has averaged 9.6 points per game on the season, with a 7.8 average PPG in the 23/24 postseason. In the first game of the series, Pritchard was able to rack up 8 points, falling .5 short of exceeding his point line. He has become a reliable source of offense for the Cs over the last couple of months, and he should get enough playing time, and shot attempts tonight to cover this mark.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Payton Pritchard Over 8.5 Points Scored, with an edge of 9.9% at +114 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. MYLES TURNER OVER 16.5 POINTS SCORED (+102)
Odds: +102
Probability: 58.9%
Projection: 20.9
Edge: 9.4%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Pacers vs Celtics game, with Myles Turner showing value in the over points prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Turner has been able to average 17.1 points per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 20.9 points in tonight’s matchup. Throughout the postseason, Turner has been able to average a total of 17.9 points through 32.9 minutes per game. Our model suspects that with a projection of 20.9 points in tonight’s game, and a 17.9 PPG average throughout the playoffs, we highly recommend placing a wager on Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points Scored.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 9.4% edge on the +102 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. JAYLEN BROWN OVER 25.5 POINTS SCORED (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 57.6%
Projection: 29.2
Edge: 7.6%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Jaylen Brown in the Pacers vs Celtics showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Jaylen Brown Over 25.5 Points Scored.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Brown has averaged 23 points per game, with a 23.4 PPG average in the postseason. In the last five postseason games that he’s played in he has racked up 26/11/27/28/19 points respectively, beating the line in 3/5 games. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that with Tatum facilitating the offense, Brown will get dished the ball a lot for some easy looks.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Jaylen Brown Over 25.5 Points Scored, with a detected edge of 7.6% and +100 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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