We’re back today with another exciting NBA playoff slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every NBA playoff game to expertly pinpoint our best player bets for tonight.
1. RUDY GOBERT OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS (-113)
Odds: -113
Probability: 55.6%
Projection: 13.2
Edge: 16.6%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves, with Rudy Gobert showing value in the over rebounds prop market. Our model has narrowed down Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason Gobert has been grabbing a ton of loose balls around the basket. With an average of 11.5 rebounds against the Mavericks, Gobert has already shown that he can outmatch the Mavs when it comes to controlling the defensive glass. Our model suspects that with a 11.5 average against the Mavs in the regular season, and a postseason average of 10.9 RPG, Gobert should have little issue hitting his rebound line.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds at -113 odds and an attractive 16.6% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. LUKA DONCIC OVER 29.5 POINTS (-102)
Odds: -102
Probability:
Projection: 31.1
Edge: 15.7%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over points prop market. Doncic has averaged 33.9 points per game on the season, with a 27.5 average PPG in the 23/24 postseason. Against the Timberwolves, Doncic has had little issue exceeding this line, being able to average a total of 36.5 points in the regular season. Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points tonight against the Timberwolves.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points, with an edge of 15.7% at -102 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. ANTHONY EDWARDS OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-115)
Odds: -115
Probability: 60.7%
Projection: 7.4
Edge: 7.2%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Anthony Edwards in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 Total Assists.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Edwards has averaged 5.1 assists per game, with a 5.9 APG average in the postseason. In the last five postseason games that he’s played in, he has racked up 7/4/9/5/6 assists in each game respectively. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that Edwards will be facilitating the offense, deferring to better scoring matchups when guarded straight up (or doubled) by Dallas who will be throwing a bunch of different looks at him tonight.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 7.2% and -115 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
4. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 20.5 POINTS SCORED (-102)
Odds: -102
Probability: 58.8%
Projection: 24.8
Edge: 8.3%
Game: Mavericks vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
The last best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves game, with Karl-Anthony Towns showing value in the over points scored prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season KAT has been able to average 21.8 points per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 24.8 points in tonight’s matchup. Throughout the postseason, KAT has been able to average a total of 18.8 points through 32 minutes per game. Our model suspects that with a projection of 24.8 points in tonights game, and a 21 PPG average against the Mavericks, we highly recommend placing a wager on Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points Scored.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 8.3% edge on the -102 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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