We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. LUKA DONCIC OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+138)
Odds: +138
Probability: 59.4%
Projection: 4.4
Edge: 17.4%
Game: Thunder vs Mavericks (9:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Thunder vs Mavericks, with Luka Doncic showing value in the total 3-pointers made market. Our model has narrowed down Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason Doncic has been able to average a total of 3.3 3-pointers per game. He stunk it up from distance in G3, but it mattered not, as Dallas took a 2-1 lead over the Thunder. Expect a better shooting night from the Slovenian in this one.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made at +138 odds and an attractive 17.4% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 5.5 TOTAL REBOUNDS (+136)
Odds: +136
Probability: 52%
Projection: 5.9
Edge: 9.7%
Game: Thunder vs Mavericks (9:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Thunder vs Mavericks game, with Jalen Williams showing value in the over rebounds market. Williams averages 4.0 rebounds per game on the season, but has exceeded this number in two of his last three games against the Mavs. He has been attacking the defensive glass so far in the postseason too, grabbing almost 6.5 RPG so far. This number is a shade too low, so we’re taking the over.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Total Rebounds, with an edge of 9.7% at +136 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+114)
Odds: +114
Probability: 56%
Projection: 7.6
Edge: 9.3%
Game: Thunder vs Mavericks (9:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Thunder vs Mavericks game, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showing value in the over assists prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season SGA has been able to average 6.2 assists per game. The Mavs are making a concerted effort to turn the MVP runner up into a passer in this series, and his assists have gone up as a result – he is averaging 7.7 assists in this series. Our model projects him to get 7.6 assists tonight.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us a 9.3% edge on the +114 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-120)
Odds: -120
Probability: 62.9%
Projection: 3.7
Edge: 8.4%
Game: Thunder vs Mavericks (9:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Kyrie Irving in the Thunder vs Mavericks showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made.
Over the course of the 2023/24 season Irving has averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game, and his second half take-overs are becoming a compelling narrative in this series. He won’t struggle to attempt a handful tonight – so we’re taking his over.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with a detected edge of 8.4% and -120 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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