Best NBA Playoff Player Prop Bets (5/9/24)

NBA

We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.


1. JOSH GIDDEY OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+136)

Odds: +136
Probability: 56.2%
Projection: 5.6
Edge: 13.8%
Game: Mavericks vs Thunder (9:30PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Mavericks vs Thunder, with Josh Giddey showing value in the over assist prop market. Our model has narrowed down Josh Giddey Over 4.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season Giddey has been able to average a total of 4.8 assists per game. When matched up against the Mavs, this number drops to only 4.3 APG. Our model suspects that with a lot of the Mavs listed as GTD, Giddey should be able to move the ball around to the best scoring matchups, leading to his over assist line to hit. Having SGA on the court will also help to take away a lot of the defense’s attention, further putting Giddey in position to move the ball to more open teammates.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Josh Giddey Over 4.5 Total Assists at +136 odds and an attractive 13.8% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. KYRIE IRVING OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+142)

Odds: +142
Probability: 54.4%
Projection: 3.9
Edge: 13.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Thunder (9:30PM EST)

According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Clippers game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the over 3-pointers made market. Kyrie has averaged 3 3-pointers made per game on the season, with a 3.6 3-pointer average in the 23/24 postseason. With the Mavs down one in the series we can expect to see players like Luka and Irving playing crucial roles on both sides of the court, but especially offensively. With the power duo of Kyrie and Luka on the court, we can expect to see Luka move the ball to Kyrie for him to take some shots from the arc leading him to exceed his line on 3-pointers.

The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Kyrie Irving Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 13.1% at +142 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.

3. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+125)

Odds: +125
Probability: 54.5%
Projection: 5.3
Edge: 10%
Game: Cavaliers vs Celtics (7PM EST)

The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Cavaliers vs Celtics game, with Derrick White showing value in the over assists prop market.

Throughout the 23/24 season White has been able to average 4.7 assists per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 5.3 assists in tonight’s matchup. In the last postseason match against the Cavaliers, White was able to walk away with 5 assists in the first game. Our model believes that with an average of 4.7APG against the Cavs and a projection of 5.3 assists in tonights game, this is a solid wager for tonight’s NBA slate.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an 10% edge on the +125 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

4. DARIUS GARLAND OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+102)

Odds: +102
Probability: 58.8%
Projection: 7.0
Edge: 8.8%
Game: Cavaliers vs Celtics (7PM EST)

According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Darius Garland in the Cavaliers vs Celtics showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Darius Garland Over 5.5 Total Assists.

Related Article:  Best NBA Playoff Bets (5/17/24)

Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Garland has averaged 6.5 assists per game, With a 5.4 APG average in the postseason. In the last five postseason games that he’s played in, he has fallen one assist short of the line three times. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that Garland will be looking to move the ball to the best scoring matchup, leading to him hitting the over assist line.

Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Darius Garland Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 8.8% and +102 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.

 

What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?

An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.

Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.

 

Responsible Gambling

Our commitment lies in advocating for responsible wagering to ensure a secure and pleasurable experience for everyone involved. Engaging in sports betting responsibly is paramount. Establishing a budget, comprehending the odds, and staying informed about the legal framework in your area are essential steps. Trusted platforms such as FanDuel and BetMGM actively support responsible betting practices, offering valuable resources to help individuals manage their wagering activities in a safe manner.

 

How to Join BetMGM

Famous for its wide range of betting options, BetMGM enables users to wager on virtually every aspect of major sporting events, including game results and individual player performances. Moreover, it provides comprehensive in-game betting features, allowing bettors to place wagers while the action unfolds, heightening the excitement. For newcomers, BetMGM offers an enticing welcome bonus that allows you to instantly enter the game of sports betting with a nice bankroll to work with.

 



 

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How to Join FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel offers a user-friendly platform tailored for newcomers to sports betting. It boasts a diverse selection of betting options, encompassing traditional choices such as point spreads and moneylines, along with an extensive range of prop bets. Moreover, FanDuel extends a generous welcome bonus, providing new users with a layup as they start their betting journey.

 


 

FanDuel Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

How to Join DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook presents an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform, perfect for those just entering the world of sports betting. It showcases a broad spectrum of betting possibilities, from classic options like point spreads and moneylines to a wide array of NBA prop bets. Furthermore, DraftKings Sportsbook offers an enticing welcome bonus, giving new users a nice boost to start their betting adventures.

 


 

DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

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