We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. JAMAL MURRAY OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+120)
Odds: +120
Probability: 57.5%
Projection: 7.8
Edge: 12.1%
Game: Timberwolves vs Nuggets (10PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Timberwolves vs Nuggets, with Jamal Murray showing value in the total assists made market. Our model has narrowed down Jamal Murray Over 6.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason Murray has been able to average a total of 7.2 assists per game. Throughout the last 6 postseason games that Murray has played in, he has been able to cover this line 3/6 times, getting 4/7/5/9/5/10 assists in each game respectively. Our Basketball Forever betting bot expects Murray to continue facilitating tonight.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Jamal Murray Over 6.5 Total Assists at +120 odds and an attractive 12.1% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 15.5 POINTS SCORED (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 64%
Projection: 23
Edge: 11.6%
Game: Pacers vs Knicks (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Pacers vs Knicks game, with Donte DiVincenzo showing value in the over points market. DiVincenzo averages 15.5 points per game on the season, and has exceeded this number in two of his last five games. Against the Pacers, DiVincenzo has been able to rack up an average of 24 points through the three regular season games they’ve played against each other. Our model suspects that when it comes to the Knicks offense, Brunson will take a lot of the attention away from the other players including DiVincenzo, leaving room for him to rack up some shots, exceeding the over on his points line.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Donte DiVincenzo Over 15.5 Points Scored, with an edge of 11.6% at -110 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. ANTHONY EDWARDS OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+114)
Odds: +114
Probability: 57.1%
Projection: 6.7
Edge: 9.9%
Game: Timberwolves vs Nuggets (10PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Timberwolves vs Nuggets game, with Anthony Edwards showing value in the over assists prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Edwards has been able to average 5.1 assists per game. With the Timberwolves winning the first game of this series, our Model suspects that Edwards will continue to be the go-to floor general tonight.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us a 9.9% edge on the +114 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. JOSH HART OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+130)
Odds: +130
Probability: 52.5%
Projection: 6
Edge: 9.1%
Game: Pacers vs Knicks (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Josh Hart in the Pacers vs Knicks showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Josh Hart Over 5.5 Total Assists.
Over the course of the 2023/24 season Hart has averaged 4.1 assists per game. Throughout the first series of the playoffs we have seen him exceed this number in 2/5 games, falling one assist short in one of those. He plays almost all 48 minutes, has his hands on every loose ball, and seems to always have a happy knack of making the right play. Our model suggests the over on this number is the play tonight.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Josh Hart Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 9.1% and +130 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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