We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. TOBIAS HARRIS OVER 12.5 POINTS SCORED (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 62.7%
Projection: 19.1
Edge: 12.7%
Game: Knicks vs 75ers (9PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Knicks vs 75ers, with Tobias Harris showing value in the total points market. Our model has narrowed down Tobias Harris Over 12.5 Points Scored as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season, Harris has been able to average a total of 17.2 points per game. He was big in G5 against the Knicks – and Nick Nurse seems to be drawing up a lot of plays for Harris – particularly at the start of games. He’s also a reliable FT shooter when he does get to the stripe.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Tobias Harris Over 12.5 Points Scored at +100 odds and an attractive 12.7% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. TYRESE HALIBURTON OVER 10.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 57.1%
Projection: 11.8
Edge: 12.5%
Game: Bucks vs Pacers (6:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Bucks vs Pacers game, with Tyrese Haliburton value in the over assist market. Haliburton has averaged 10.9 assists per game on the season, with a 11APG average against the Bucks. Our model suspects that after losing last game and only getting 6 assists, Haliburton will end up moving the ball around to better scoring matchups, and the Pacers should have a better shooting night after a torrid G5 showing.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 12.5% at +124 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. JALEN BRUNSON OVER 33.5 POINTS SCORED (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 60.7%
Projection: 38.9
Edge: 10.7%
Game: Knicks vs 76ers (9PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Knicks vs 76ers game, with Jalen Brunson showing value in the over points scored prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Brown has been able to average 28.7 PPG, with a postseason average of 34.4 PPG. In the past five matches against the 76ers, Brunson has killed them, generating 40/47/39/24/22 points in each game respectively. Our model projects him to have 38.9 points in tonight’s game, with a ton of usage. This is a must have bet for tonights NBA playoff slate.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jalen Brunson Over 33.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 10.7% edge on the +100 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. JOEL EMBIID OVER 3.5 TOTAL TURNOVERS (-130)
Odds: -130
Probability: 64.9%
Projection: 5.2
Edge: 8.3%
Game: Knicks vs 76ers (9PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Joel Embiid in the Knicks vs 76ers showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Total Turnovers.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Embiid has averaged 3.8 turnovers per game, with an average of 4.0 against the Knicks in the postseason. He has been troubled by the Knicks’ double teams and length + athleticism, and despite still leaving his imprints on the series, expect a handful of turnovers from the Sixers big man tonight.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Total Turnovers, with a detected edge of 8.3% and -130 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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