We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 61%%
Edge: 16.4%
Game: Heat vs Celtics (7:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Heat vs Celtics, with Derrick White showing value in the total assist market. Our model has narrowed down Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season White has been able to average a total of 5.2 assists per game with a 4.7 APG average against the Heat. With Butler, Jaques Jr, and Rozier all listed as out, White should have plenty of opportunities to move the ball to the best scoring matchups for Boston.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists at +124 odds and an attractive 16.4% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. LUKA DONCIC OVER 9.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+112)
Odds: +112
Probability: 63.5%
Projection: 12
Edge: 16.4%
Game: Mavericks vs Clippers (10PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Mavericks vs Clippers game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over assists market. Luka Doncic has averaged 9.8 assists per game on the season, with an 8.5 average in the postseason. Our model suspects that after their last loss to the Clippers, Luka is going to come out steaming hot – staying aggressive on the offensive side of the ball.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 16.4% at +112 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. JAYLEN BROWN OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+140)
Odds: +140
Probability: 53.8%
Projection: 2.8
Edge: 12.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Clippers (10PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Heat vs Celtics game, with Jaylen Brown showing value in the over 3-pointers prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Brown has been able to average 2 2-pointers per game. Our model is actually projecting him to rack up 2.8 3-pointers in tonight’s matchup. In past postseason matches against the Heat, Brown has been able to walk away with 1/0/4/3 3-pointers in each game. Our model believes that with an average of 2 3-PPG against the Heat and a projection of 2.8 points for tonights game, this is a solid wager for tonight’s slate.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made in tonight’s game, which gives us an 12.1% edge on the +140 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
4. JAYSON TATUM OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-130)
Odds: -130
Probability: 67.8%
Projection: 4.3
Edge: 11.2%
Game: Heat vs Celtics (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Jayson Tatum in the Heat vs Celtics showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Tatum has averaged 3.1 3-pointers per game, getting 2/2/2/1 3-pointers in each of the last 4 postseason games. He has been quiet overall, and should turn up in a big series ending performance tonight.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with a detected edge of 11.2% and -130 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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