We’re back today with another exciting NBA playoff slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every NBA playoff game to expertly pinpoint our best player bets for tonight.
1. NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 9.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-122)
Odds: -122
Probability: 70.8%
Projection: 15
Edge: 15.9%
Game: Lakers vs Nuggets (10PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA playoff player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Lakers vs Nuggets matchup, with Nikola Jokic showing value in the total assist market. Our model has narrowed down Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Over the course of the last 10 regular season games Jokic has been able to hold a solid average of 8.9APG, with a 9.0 average throughout the whole 23/24 season. Jokic should be in dish mode tonight as the Nuggets look to close the series out against LA.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Total Assists at -122 odds and an attractive 15.9% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. JAYSON TATUM OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-135)
Odds: -135
Probability: 67.9%
Projection: 4.4
Edge: 10.5%
Game: Celtics vs Heat (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff slate takes place in the Celtics vs Heat game, with Jayson Tatum showing value in the over 3-pointers prop market. Tatum averages 3.1 3-pointers per game on the season, and has averaged 2.7 3-pointers against the Heat in the regular season. With Butler and Rozier listed as OUT for tonights match, we should see Tatum get plenty of opportunities to continue slinging from behind the arc.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 10.4% at +135 odds available on BetMGM Sportsbook.
3. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 57.3%
Projection: 5.8
Edge: 12.7%
Game: Celtics vs Heat (7:30PM EST)
The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Celtics vs Heat, with Derrick White showing value in the over assists prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season White has been able to average 5.2 assists per game, with our model predicting a total of 5.8 assists by the end of the 4th quarter. When matched up against the Heat, White has been able to hold an average of 4.3 assists per game. This leads our Basketball Forever betting bot to predict that with the Celtics having a healthy roster and the Heat missing two of their star players, White will go over his assist line tonight.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an 12.7% edge on the +124 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
4. D’ANGELO RUSSELL OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+105)
Odds: +105
Probability: 61.6%
Projection: 6.6
Edge: 12.8%
Game: Lakers vs Nuggets (10PM EST)
According to our model, the last best NBA playoff player prop bet for tonight features D’Angelo Russell in the Lakers vs Nuggets showdown. Our betting bot has found value in D’Angelo Russell Over 4.5 Total Assists.
Over the course of the 2023/24 season Russell has averaged 6.3 assists per game. Our model predicts that D-Russ will be able to exceed this line – predicting 6.6 total assists in tonight’s matchup.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on D’Angelo Russell Over 4.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 12.8% and +105 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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