We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. JAYSON TATUM OVER 25.5 POINTS (+110)
Odds: +110
Probability: 61.3%
Projection: 31.2
Edge: 13.7%
Game: Heat vs Celtics (7PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Heat vs Celtics, with Jayson Tatum showing value in the total points market. Our model has narrowed down Jayson Tatum Over 25.5 Points as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season Tatum has been able to average a total of 26.9 points per game with 24.7 PPG against the Heat. After going 7/18 on field goal attempts last game against the Heat, we can expect to see Tatum pick it up tonight and lead the Celtics to another win. Our model predicts that Jayson Tatum will exceed his line of 25.5 Points in tonights game against the Heat.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Jayson Tatum Over 25.5 Points at +110 odds and an attractive 13.7% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. CJ MCCOLLUM OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 62.9%
Projection: 4.8
Edge: 10.6%
Game: Pelicans vs Thunder (9:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Pelicans vs Thunder game, with CJ McCollum showing value in the over 3-pointers market. CJ McCollum has averaged 3.6 3-pointers per game on the season, and has exceeded this number in eight of the last 10 regular season games. Our model suspects that after losing by only two points and only making 2 3-pointers, Cj will end up slinging the ball from behind the arc trying to make up for their last matchup where he went 2/9 on 3-pointers. They need his offense to be humming tonight if they are any chance of pinching game two.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on CJ McCollum Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 10.6% at -110 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. JAYLEN BROWN OVER 20.5 POINTS SCORED (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 62.6%
Projection: 27
Edge: 10.2%
Game: Heat vs Celtics (7PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Heat vs Celtics game, with Jaylen Brown showing value in the over points scored prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Brown has been able to average 23 PPG. Our model believes this line is a little low with it actually projecting him to rack up 27 points in tonight’s matchup. In past matches against the Heat, Brown has been able to walk away with an average of 21.7 PPG. Our model believes that with an average of 21.7 against the Heat and a projection of 27 points for tonights game, this is a must have bet for tonights NBA playoff slate.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jaylen Brown Over 20.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 10.2% edge on the -110 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
4. JAYSON TATUM OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-142)
Odds: -142
Probability: 68.2%
Projection: 4.4
Edge: 9.5%
Game: Heat vs Celtics (7PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Jayson Tatum in the Heat vs Celtics showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Tatum has averaged 3.1 3-pointers per game, with an average of 2.7 3s made against the Heat. Our model suspects that after last game where he went 7/18 on FG attempts, Tatum will be forced to lock in tonight against the heat, leading to more shots made.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with a detected edge of 9.5% and -142 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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