We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpointed our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. DOMANTAS SABONIS OVER 8.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 66.5%
Projection: 11.7
Edge: 16.5%
Game: Kings vs Pelicans (9:30PM EST)
According to our model, the best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Kings vs Pelicans game, with Domantas Sabonis showing value in the over assists market. Domantas Sabonis averages 8.2 assists per game on the year, and has exceeded this number in three of his last five regular season games. With Fox and Murray on the court there will be plenty of opportunities for Sabonis to exceed this number.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Domantas Sabonis Over 8.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 16.5% at +100 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.
2. AYO DOSUNMU OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+130)
Odds: +130
Probability: 56.8%
Projection: 17.3
Edge: 9.1%
Game: Bulls vs Heat (7PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified another best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Bulls vs Heat, with Ayo Dosunmu showing value in the total assist market. Our model has narrowed down Ayo Dosunmu Over 4.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season Dosunmu has been able to average a total of 3.2 assists per game, with a 3.8 average over his last 10 regular season games. With no Jimmy on the Heat, the Heat defence looks a little porous, and with Caruso doubtful for the game – Dosunmu will need to take on a bigger offensive role.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Ayo Dosunmu Over 4.5 Total Assists at +130 odds and an attractive 9.1% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
3. CJ MCCOLLUM OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-135)
Odds: -135
Probability: 62.8%
Projection: 4.7
Edge: 5.4%
Game: Kings vs Pelicans (9:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Kings vs Pelicans game, with CJ McCollum showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season McCollum has been able to average 3.6 3-pointers per game. Our model believes this line is a little low with it actually projecting McCollum to rack up 4.7 assists in tonight’s matchup. In past matches against the Kings, McCollum has been able to rack up an average of 6.3 3-pointers over the course of 3 games. Our model believes that with Zion being out tonight, there will be a lot more scoring opportunities for McCollum. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts McCollum to exceed this line by the end of the game tonight.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts CJ McCollum Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made in tonight’s game, which gives us an 15.3% edge on the -110 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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