We’re back today with another exciting NBA playoff slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every NBA playoff game to expertly pinpointed our best player bets for tonight.
1. DEJOUNTE MURRAY OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+105)
Odds: +105
Probability: 61.2%
Projection: 7.5
Edge: 12.4%
Game: Hawks vs Bulls (9:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA playoff player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Hawks vs Bulls matchup, with Dejounte Murray showing value in the total assist market. Our model has narrowed down Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Over the course of the last 10 regular season games Dejounte Murray has been able to hold a solid average of 8APG, with a 6.4 average throughout the whole 23/24 season. Our model suspects that Murray will be looking to move the ball to the best scoring matchups like in past games against the Hawks. In the regular season the Hawks and Bulls faced-off three ties against each other. Throughout all three of these games, Murray was able to keep an average of 6.3APG.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 Total Assists at +105 odds and an attractive 12.4% edge through BetMGM Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. TYRESE MAXEY OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+118)
Odds: +118
Probability: 53.5%
Projection: 7.1
Edge: 7.7%
Game: Heat vs 76ers (7PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff slate takes place in the Heat vs 76ers game, with Tyrese Maxey showing value in the over assists market. Maxey averages 6.2 assists per game on the season, and has averaged 6.5 assists after four games against the Heat. With Embiid on the court with Maxey attracting most of the defensive attention, Maxey will have ample opportunity to move the ball to players like Oubre jr, Harris, and Lowry hopefully hoping to exceed his assist line. Our model believes that with most of the defensive attention on Embiid, Maxey should have no problem moving the ball and exceeding this line.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 7.7% at +118 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. KELLY OUBRE OVER 13.5 POINTS SCORED (-104)
Odds: -104
Probability: 56.3%
Projection: 16.5
Edge: 5.3%
Game: Heat vs 76ers (7PM EST)
The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Heat vs 76ers game, with Kelly Oubre showing value in the over points prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Oubre has been able to average 15.4PPG. Our model believes this line is a little low with it actually projecting Oubre to rack up 16.5 points in tonight’s matchup. Over the course of the last 5 games, ombre has been able to beat this line 4/5 times scoring 8/21/17/26/17 points in each game. Against the Heat Oubre racks up an average of 18.5 points, leading our Basketball Forever betting bot to suspect that Oubre should have very little issue exceeding his points line.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Kelly Oubre Over 13.5 Points Scored in tonight’s game, which gives us an 5.3% edge on the -104 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
4. DEMAR DEROZAN OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 56.6%
Projection: 6.7
Edge: 6.6%
Game: Hawks vs Bulls (9:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best NBA playoff player prop bet for tonight features DeMar DeRozan in the Hawks vs Bulls showdown. Our betting bot has found value in DeMar DeRozan Over 5.5 Total Assists.
Over the course of the 2023/24 season DeRozan has averaged 5.3 assists per game. Our model predicts that DeMar DeRozan will be able to exceed this line – predicting 6.7 total assists in tonight’s matchup.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on DeMar DeRozan Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 6.6% and +100 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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