Best NBA Playoff Player Prop Bets (4/16/24)

NBA

We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpointed our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.


1. D’ANGELO RUSSELL OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+130)

Odds: +130
Probability:
Projection: 4.6
Edge: 18.3%
Game: Lakers vs Pelicans (7:30PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Lakers vs Pelicans, with D’Angelo Russell showing value in the total 3-pointers market. Our model has narrowed down D’Angelo Russell Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season Russell has been able to average a total of 4.3 3-pointers made against the Pelicans. Our model predicts that Russell will exceed 3.5 3-pointers in tonights game against the Pelicans.

Our model recommends placing a wager on D’Angelo Russell Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made at +130 odds and an attractive 18.3% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. DOMANTAS SABONIS OVER 8.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-102)

Odds: -102
Probability:
Projection: 12.2
Edge: 17.5%
Game: Warriors vs Kings (10PM EST)

According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Warriors vs Kings game, with Domantas Sabonis showing value in the over assist market. Domantas Sabonis averages 8.2 assists per game on the season, and has exceeded this number in three of his last five games. With Fox, Monk, and Murray all on the court there will be plenty of opportunities for Sabonis to exceed his line. Our Basketball Forever betting bot suspects that with all of the starters being healthy, he should be able to move the ball to better scoring matchups.

The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Domantas Sabonis Over 8.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 17.5% at -102 odds available on Draftkings Sportsbook.

3. DRAYMOND GREEN OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-110)

Odds: -110
Probability:
Projection: 10.1
Edge: 15.3%
Game: Warriors vs Kings (10PM EST)

The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Warriors vs Kings game, with Draymond Green showing value in the over assists prop market.

Throughout the 23/24 season Green has been able to average 6APG. Our model believes this line is a little low with it actually projecting Green to rack up 10.1 assists in tonight’s matchup. In past matches against the Kings, Green has been able to walk away with an average of 7.7 assists. Our model believes that with an average pf 7.7 against the Kings and a projection of 10.1 assists for tonights game, this is a must have bet for tonights NBA playoff slate.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Draymond Green Over 6.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an 15.3% edge on the -110 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

4. LEBRON JAMES OVER 9.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+122)

Odds: +122
Probability:
Projection: 11.2
Edge: 13%
Game: Lakers vs Pelicans (7:30PM EST)

According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features LeBron James in the Lakers vs Pacers showdown. Our betting bot has found value in LeBron James Over 9.5 Total Assists.

Over the course of the 2023/24 season LeBron has averaged 8.3 assists per game, with an average of 9.8 over the last 10 games. In recent matchups against the Pelicans, LeBron has been able to average 11.8 assists over the four head-to-head games as opponents, with a high of 17 assists against the pelicans.

Related Article:  Best NBA Playoff Player Prop Bets (5/17/24)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on LeBron James Over 9.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 13% and +122 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.

 

What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?

An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.

Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.

 

Responsible Gambling

Our commitment lies in advocating for responsible wagering to ensure a secure and pleasurable experience for everyone involved. Engaging in sports betting responsibly is paramount. Establishing a budget, comprehending the odds, and staying informed about the legal framework in your area are essential steps. Trusted platforms such as FanDuel and BetMGM actively support responsible betting practices, offering valuable resources to help individuals manage their wagering activities in a safe manner.

 

How to Join BetMGM

Famous for its wide range of betting options, BetMGM enables users to wager on virtually every aspect of major sporting events, including game results and individual player performances. Moreover, it provides comprehensive in-game betting features, allowing bettors to place wagers while the action unfolds, heightening the excitement. For newcomers, BetMGM offers an enticing welcome bonus that allows you to instantly enter the game of sports betting with a nice bankroll to work with.

 


 

BetMGM Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 

 

How to Join FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel offers a user-friendly platform tailored for newcomers to sports betting. It boasts a diverse selection of betting options, encompassing traditional choices such as point spreads and moneylines, along with an extensive range of prop bets. Moreover, FanDuel extends a generous welcome bonus, providing new users with a layup as they start their betting journey.

 


 

FanDuel Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

How to Join DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook presents an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform, perfect for those just entering the world of sports betting. It showcases a broad spectrum of betting possibilities, from classic options like point spreads and moneylines to a wide array of NBA prop bets. Furthermore, DraftKings Sportsbook offers an enticing welcome bonus, giving new users a nice boost to start their betting adventures.

 


 

DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

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