Best NBA Player Prop Bets (4/11/24)


We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best player bets for tonight.


Odds: +120
Probability: 62.5%
Projection: 7.7
Edge: 17%
Game: Pelicans vs Kings (7:30PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Pelicans vs Kings matchup, with Zion Williamson showing value in the total assists market. Our model has narrowed down Zion Williamson Over 5.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Our model predicts that Williamson will exceed the 5.5 assist line set, projecting a total of 7.7 assists by the end of the game. Throughout the 23/24 season Williamson has been able to average 5 APG, with a 5.7 average against the Kings.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Zion Williamson Over 5.5 Total Assists at +120 odds and an attractive 17% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.


Odds: +140
Probability: 58.5%
Projection: 5
Edge: 16.8%
Game: Bulls vs Pistons (7PM EST)

The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Bulls vs Pistons game, with Nikola Vucevic showing value in the over assists prop market.

In this matchup the Bulls are up against one of the worst teams in the league, that being the Pistons. Although the Pistons are 2-1 against the Bulls, our model predicts the Bulls will walk away with a win. Andre Drummond is listed as GTD, and we should expect to see Vucevic get a lot more playing time, and subsequent opportunities to get over his assist line.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Nikola Vucevic Over 3.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an exciting 16.8% edge on the +140 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.


Odds: +134
Probability: 54.8%
Projection: 4.9
Edge: 12.1%
Game: Pelicans vs Kings (10PM EST)

According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate takes place in the Pelicans vs Kings game, with CJ McCollum showing value in the over 3-pointers made market. Throughout the season CJ McCollum has been able to average 3.5 3-pointers per game. Since the start of April, McCollum has been slinging from behind the arc, being able to average a total of 4.6 3-pointers this month alone, exceeding this line in three of his last five games. Against the Kings, CJ McCollum has especially gone off. With only two games played against them, he has been able to get an average of 5 3-pointers with a 66.7% 3P%. Our Basketball Forever betting bot believes that this is a no sweat bet with great odds.

The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on CJ McCollum Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 12.1% at +134 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.


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What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?

An edge occurs when the prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.

Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.


Responsible Gambling

Our commitment lies in advocating for responsible wagering to ensure a secure and pleasurable experience for everyone involved. Engaging in sports betting responsibly is paramount. Establishing a budget, comprehending the odds, and staying informed about the legal framework in your area are essential steps. Trusted platforms such as FanDuel and BetMGM actively support responsible betting practices, offering valuable resources to help individuals manage their wagering activities in a safe manner.


How to Join BetMGM

Famous for its wide range of betting options, BetMGM enables users to wager on virtually every aspect of major sporting events, including game results and individual player performances. Moreover, it provides comprehensive in-game betting features, allowing bettors to place wagers while the action unfolds, heightening the excitement. For newcomers, BetMGM offers an enticing welcome bonus that allows you to instantly enter the game of sports betting with a nice bankroll to work with.



BetMGM Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 


How to Join FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel offers a user-friendly platform tailored for newcomers to sports betting. It boasts a diverse selection of betting options, encompassing traditional choices such as point spreads and moneylines, along with an extensive range of prop bets. Moreover, FanDuel extends a generous welcome bonus, providing new users with a layup as they start their betting journey.



FanDuel Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.


How to Join DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook presents an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform, perfect for those just entering the world of sports betting. It showcases a broad spectrum of betting possibilities, from classic options like point spreads and moneylines to a wide array of NBA prop bets. Furthermore, DraftKings Sportsbook offers an enticing welcome bonus, giving new users a nice boost to start their betting adventures.



DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.


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