NBA Best Player Prop Bets (4/3/24)

NBA

We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpointed our best player bets for tonight’s NBA slate. (4/3)


1. DENI AVDIJA OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+126)

Odds: +126
Probability: 56.8%
Projection: 5.7
Edge: 12.5%
Game: Lakers vs Wizards (7PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Lakers vs Wizards matchup – with Deni Avdija showing value in the total assist prop market. Our model predicts that Avdija will cover this 4.5 assist line, projecting a total of 5.7 assists.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Deni Avdija Over 4.5 Total Assists at +126 odds and an attractive 12.5% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. JORDAN POOLE OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+118)

Odds: +118
Probability: 57.4%
Edge: 11.5%
Game: Lakers vs Wizards (7PM EST)

The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Lakers vs Wizards game, with Jordan Poole showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market.

Over the course of the 23/24 season Jordan Poole has been able to average 2.3 3-pointers per game. Tonight marks the second night that the Lakers and Wizards face off this season. In the last matchup, Poole was able to sink five threes against the Lakers. After only sinking one 3-pointer in his last game against the bucks, our model suspects Poole will increase his volume from behind the arc, covering this number.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jordan Poole Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made in tonight’s game, which gives us a 11.5% edge on the +118 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.

3. DARIUS GARLAND OVER 14.5 POINTS SCORED (-104)

Odds: -104
Probability: 62.5%
Projection: 21
Edge: 11.5%
Game: Cavaliers vs Suns (10PM EST)

According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate takes place in the Cavaliers vs Suns game, with Darius Garland showing value in the over points market. Throughout the 23/24 season Darius Garland has been able to average 17.8 points per game. Against the Suns, that number almost doubles –  averaging 30PPG against Phoenix. Our model predicts Darius Garland to end the game with 21 points tonight.

The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Darius Garland Over 14.5 Points Scored, with an edge of 11.5% at -104 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.

4. AUSTIN REAVES OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-110)

Odds: -110
Probability: 62.7%
Projection: 7.8
Edge: 10.3%
Game: Lakers vs Wizards (7PM EST)

According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Austin Reaves in the Lakers vs Wizards showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Total Assists.

Over the course of the 2023/24 season, Reaves has averaged 5.6 assists per game. Our model predicts that Reaves will be able to exceed this line tonight – projecting 7.8 total dimes by the time the final whistle blows in the fourth quarter. Reaves has been able to cover this number in all of his past six games totaling 6/6/6/11/10/8 assists respectively. He should have his way against a porous Wizards defence.

Related Article:  Best NBA Playoff Player Prop Bets (4/19/20)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 10.3% and -110 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.


 

What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?

An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.

Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.

 

Responsible Gambling

Our commitment lies in advocating for responsible wagering to ensure a secure and pleasurable experience for everyone involved. Engaging in sports betting responsibly is paramount. Establishing a budget, comprehending the odds, and staying informed about the legal framework in your area are essential steps. Trusted platforms such as FanDuel and BetMGM actively support responsible betting practices, offering valuable resources to help individuals manage their wagering activities in a safe manner.

 

How to Join BetMGM

Famous for its wide range of betting options, BetMGM enables users to wager on virtually every aspect of major sporting events, including game results and individual player performances. Moreover, it provides comprehensive in-game betting features, allowing bettors to place wagers while the action unfolds, heightening the excitement. For newcomers, BetMGM offers an enticing welcome bonus that allows you to instantly enter the game of sports betting with a nice bankroll to work with.

 


 

BetMGM Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 

 

How to Join FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel offers a user-friendly platform tailored for newcomers to sports betting. It boasts a diverse selection of betting options, encompassing traditional choices such as point spreads and moneylines, along with an extensive range of prop bets. Moreover, FanDuel extends a generous welcome bonus, providing new users with a layup as they start their betting journey.

 


 

FanDuel Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

How to Join DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook presents an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform, perfect for those just entering the world of sports betting. It showcases a broad spectrum of betting possibilities, from classic options like point spreads and moneylines to a wide array of NBA prop bets. Furthermore, DraftKings Sportsbook offers an enticing welcome bonus, giving new users a nice boost to start their betting adventures.

 


 

DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

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