Best NBA Player Prop Best (3/29/24)

NBA

We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpointed our best player bets for tonight.


1. DRAYMOND GREEN OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+106)

Odds: +106
Probability: 64.3%
Projection: 9.2
Edge: 16.7%
Game: Warriors vs Hornets (7PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Warriors vs Hornets matchup, with Draymond Green showing value in the total assists market. Our model has narrowed down Draymond Green Over 6.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Our model predicts that Green will only get 9.2 assists in tonight’s game – leading to his line going over. With an average of 5.9 assists per game throughout the 23/24 season and a prediction of 9.2 assists by the end of the game, our model suspects Green will have no issue going over his assist line against the Hornets.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Draymond Green Over 6.5 Total Assists at +106 odds and an attractive 16.7% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. STEPHEN CURRY OVER 4.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-102)

Odds: -102
Probability: 67%
Projection: 6.2
Edge: 16.5%
Game: Warriors vs Hornets (7PM EST)

The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Warriors vs Hornets game, with Stephen Curry showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market.

Throughout the 23/24 season Curry has been able to average 4.8 3-pointers per game, and he’s coming off a 17 point performance against the Magic two nights ago. Our Basketball Forever betting bot suspects that with Curry having such low scoring games the past two matchups, 17/17, we believe that he will turn up tonight against the Hornets. Curry averages 12 3-point attempts per game, leaving him with plenty of opportunities to sink a couple. We recommend wagering lightly on this due to a possible blowout situation.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made in tonight’s game, which gives us a 16.5% edge on the -102 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.

3. ANDREW NEMBHARD OVER 3.5 ASSISTS (+130)

Odds: +130
Probability: 59.1%
Projection: 5.1
Edge: 15.7
Game: Lakers vs Pacers (7PM EST)

According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate takes place in the Lakers vs Pacers game, with Andrew Nembhard showing value in the over assist market. Andrew Nembhard averages 4.1 APG on the season, even getting 5 assists in the last Lakers vs Pacers matchup. Tonight’s Lakers roster has a couple of injuries with Lebron and Davis listed as GTD and Vincent and Vanderbilt listed out for tonight. Nembhard should take advantage of these openings looking for the best scoring matchup opportunities. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that Nembhard will go over his 3.5 assist line tonight against the Lakers.

Our Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Andrew Nembhard Over 3.5 Assists, with an edge of 15.7% at -130 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.

4. MILES MCBRIDE UNDER 1.5 TURNOVERS (-185)

Odds: -186
Probability: 56.2%
Projection: .8
Edge: 10.1
Game: Knicks vs Spurs (8PM EST)

According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Miles McBride in the Knicks vs Spurs showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Miles McBride Under 1.5 Turnovers.

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Over the course of the 2023/24 season Miles McBride has averaged 0.4 TO per game. Our model predicts that Wagner will not exceed this line – predicting 0.9 total TO in tonight’s matchup. Over their last five games, McBride has only had 2 total turnovers.

Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Miles McBride Under 1.5 Turnovers, with a detected edge of 10.1% and -186 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.


What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?

An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.

Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.

 

Responsible Gambling

Our commitment lies in advocating for responsible wagering to ensure a secure and pleasurable experience for everyone involved. Engaging in sports betting responsibly is paramount. Establishing a budget, comprehending the odds, and staying informed about the legal framework in your area are essential steps. Trusted platforms such as FanDuel and BetMGM actively support responsible betting practices, offering valuable resources to help individuals manage their wagering activities in a safe manner.

 

How to Join BetMGM

Famous for its wide range of betting options, BetMGM enables users to wager on virtually every aspect of major sporting events, including game results and individual player performances. Moreover, it provides comprehensive in-game betting features, allowing bettors to place wagers while the action unfolds, heightening the excitement. For newcomers, BetMGM offers an enticing welcome bonus that allows you to instantly enter the game of sports betting with a nice bankroll to work with.

 


 

BetMGM Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 

 

How to Join FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel offers a user-friendly platform tailored for newcomers to sports betting. It boasts a diverse selection of betting options, encompassing traditional choices such as point spreads and moneylines, along with an extensive range of prop bets. Moreover, FanDuel extends a generous welcome bonus, providing new users with a layup as they start their betting journey.

 


 

FanDuel Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

How to Join DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook presents an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform, perfect for those just entering the world of sports betting. It showcases a broad spectrum of betting possibilities, from classic options like point spreads and moneylines to a wide array of NBA prop bets. Furthermore, DraftKings Sportsbook offers an enticing welcome bonus, giving new users a nice boost to start their betting adventures.

 


 

DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

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