Best NBA Player Prop Best (3/26/24)

NBA

We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpointed our best player bets for tonight.


1. DRAYMOND GREEN OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-130)

Odds: -130
Probability: 65.7%
Projection: 8.5
Edge: 9.6%
Game: Warriors vs Heat (7:30PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Warriors vs Heat matchup, with Draymond Green showing value in the total assists market.

Our model has narrowed down Draymond Green Over 5.5 assists as the best player bet for today. Our model predicts that Draymond will rack up 8.5 assists in tonight’s game. With an average of 6.7 assists over the last 10 games, our model believes that the 5.5 line is a little low.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Draymond Green Over 5.5 Total Assists at -130 odds and an attractive 9.6% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. STEPHEN CURRY OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+105)

Odds: +105
Probability: 56.7%
Projection: 5.7
Edge: 9.1%
Game: Warriors vs Heat (7:30PM EST)

The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Warriors vs Heat game, with Stephen Curry showing value in the over assists prop market.

Throughout the 23/24 season Curry has been able to average 4.9 assists per game, and he’s coming off a 4 assist performance against the Timberwolves two nights ago. With the Basketball Forever Betting Bot projecting Steph to have 5.7 dimes, this number looks low.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Steph Curry Over 4.5 assists in tonight’s game, which gives us a 9.1% edge on the +105 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.

3. D’ANGELO RUSSELL OVER 7.5 ASSISTS (-102)

Odds: -102
Probability: 54.4%
Projection: 23.4
Edge: 8.7%
Game: Lakers vs Bucks (7:30PM EST)

According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate takes place in the Lakers vs Bucks game, with D’Angelo Russell showing value in the over assists market. D’Angelo Russell averages 6.3 APG on the season, and has exceeded this number in all nine games without LeBron and Russell, getting 11/10/8/8/10/14/17/9/9.

In their last game against the Bucks, Russell was able to secure 9 assists. Tonight should be very similar, with Russell’s usage higher than standard.

Our Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on D’Angelo Russell Over 7.5 Assists, with an edge of 8.7% at -102 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.

4. DE’AARON FOX OVER 26.5 POINTS (-118)

Odds: -118
Probability: 53.8%
Projection: 29.6
Edge: 7.7%
Game: Mavericks vs Kings (10PM EST)

According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features De’Aaron Fox in the Mavericks vs Kings showdown. Our betting bot has found value in De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points.

Over the course of the 2023/24 season Fox has averaged 26.7 points per game with a 32 point average against the Mavericks. Our model predicts that Fox will be able to exceed this line – projecting 29.6 total points in tonight’s matchup.

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Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points, with a detected edge of 7.7% and -118 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.

 

What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?

An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.

Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.

 

Responsible Gambling

Our commitment lies in advocating for responsible wagering to ensure a secure and pleasurable experience for everyone involved. Engaging in sports betting responsibly is paramount. Establishing a budget, comprehending the odds, and staying informed about the legal framework in your area are essential steps. Trusted platforms such as FanDuel and BetMGM actively support responsible betting practices, offering valuable resources to help individuals manage their wagering activities in a safe manner.

 

How to Join BetMGM

Famous for its wide range of betting options, BetMGM enables users to wager on virtually every aspect of major sporting events, including game results and individual player performances. Moreover, it provides comprehensive in-game betting features, allowing bettors to place wagers while the action unfolds, heightening the excitement. For newcomers, BetMGM offers an enticing welcome bonus that allows you to instantly enter the game of sports betting with a nice bankroll to work with.

 


 

BetMGM Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 

 

How to Join FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel offers a user-friendly platform tailored for newcomers to sports betting. It boasts a diverse selection of betting options, encompassing traditional choices such as point spreads and moneylines, along with an extensive range of prop bets. Moreover, FanDuel extends a generous welcome bonus, providing new users with a layup as they start their betting journey.

 


 

FanDuel Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

How to Join DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook presents an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform, perfect for those just entering the world of sports betting. It showcases a broad spectrum of betting possibilities, from classic options like point spreads and moneylines to a wide array of NBA prop bets. Furthermore, DraftKings Sportsbook offers an enticing welcome bonus, giving new users a nice boost to start their betting adventures.

 


 

DraftKings Sportsbook is available in the following states: AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

 

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