We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+154)
Odds: +154
Probability: 58.7%
Projection: 3.3
Edge: 19.4%
Game: Nuggets vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Nuggets vs Timberwolves, with Karl-Anthony Towns showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market. Our model has narrowed down Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason KAT has been slinging shots from behind the arc, averaging a total of 2.4 3-pointers made per game. With Mike Conley back steering the ship tonight on offense, KAT should get a handful more open looks, and should be able to drain 3+ threes.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made at +154 odds and an attractive 19.4% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 8.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-120)
Odds: -120
Probability: 68.3%
Projection: 12.4
Edge: 13.8%
Game: Nuggets vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Nuggets vs Timberwolves game, with Nikola Jokic showing value in the over assists prop market. Jokic has averaged 9 assists per game on the season, with a 9.5 average APG in the 23/24 postseason. Against the Timberwolves, Jokic has had little issue exceeding this line, being able to cover in 3/5 games. Tonight should go very similarly with Jokic projected to rack up 12.4 assists. Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends placing a wager on Jokic to go over 8.5 assists tonight against the Timberwolves.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 13.8% at -120 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. JAMAL MURRAY OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-110)
Odds: -110
Probability: 63%
Projection: 7.9
Edge: 10.7%
Game: Nuggets vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Nuggets vs Timberwolves game, with Jamal Murray showing value in the over assists prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season White has been able to average 6.7 assists per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 7.9 assists in tonight’s matchup. Throughout the postseason, Murray has been able to average a total of 5.9 assists through 38 minutes per game. Our model suspects that with a projection of 7.9 assists in tonights game, and a 5.9 APG average throughout the playoffs, we highly recommend placing a wager on Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Total Assists.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an 10.7% edge on the -110 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
4. ANTHONY EDWARDS OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 51.6%
Projection: 6.8
Edge: 7%
Game: Nuggets vs Timberwolves (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Anthony Edwards in the Nuggets vs Timberwolves showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Total Assists.
Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Edwards has averaged 5.1 assists per game, with a 6.0 APG average in the postseason. In the last five postseason games that he’s played in he has racked up 9/5/5/7/3 assists in each game respectively. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that Edwards will be facilitating the offense, driving to the net to score while also moving the ball to better scoring matchups.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 7% and +124 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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