We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpointed our best player bets for tonight’s NBA slate. (3/12)
1. Kelly Oubre Over 1.5 Total Steals (+186)
Odds: +186
Probability: 49.7%
Projection: 1.5
Edge: 14.7%
Game: 76ers vs Knicks (7:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the 76ers vs Knicks matchup, with Kelly Oubre showing value in the total steals prop market. Our model has narrowed down Kelly Oubre over 1.5 steals as the best player bet for today. Our model predicts that Oubre will hit the 1.5 steal line set, predicting a total of 1.5 steals. Averaging 1.2 steals per game and 1.7 over the last three games against the Knicks, even getting 3 in their last matchup. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Kelly Oubre to hit the over.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Kelly Oubre Over 1.5 Total Steals at +186 odds and an attractive 14.7% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. TYRESE MAXEY UNDER 0.5 TOTAL STEALS (+180)
Odds: +180
Probability: 46.4%
Projection: 0.8
Edge: 10.6%
Game: 76ers vs Knicks (7:30PM EST)
The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the 76ers vs Knicks game, with Tyrese Maxey showing value in the under steals prop market.
Over the course of the 23/24 season Maxey has averaged one steal per game. Tonight marks the third night that the 76ers and Knicks face off this season. In their last two head-to-head games, Maxey was able to walk away with 0 and 2 steals respectively. Returning from concussion, and matching up against Jalen Brunson (who doesn’t turn the ball over much), expect Maxey to log a doughnut in the steals column by the time the game is finished.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Tyrese Maxey Under 0.5 Total Steals in tonight’s game, which gives us a 10.6% edge on the +180 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 1.5 TOTAL BLOCKS (+165)
Odds:
Probability: 48.2%
Projection: 1.3
Edge: 10.5%
Game: 76ers vs Knicks (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate takes place in the 76ers vs Knicks game, with Isaiah Hartenstein showing value in the over blocks market. Hartenstein averages 1 block per game on the season, and has exceeded this line in two of his last five games. Playing against Mo Bamba and Paul Reed from the Sixers tonight, expect Hartenstein to have multiple opportunities to swat shots at the rim – given both of them are limited offensively from the perimeter, and do most of their work from within 10ft of the basket.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Isaiah Hartenstein Over 1.5 Total Blocks, with an edge of 10.5% at +165 odds available on BetMGM Sportsbook.
4. DE’AARON FOX OVER 28.5 POINTS (-111)
Odds: -111
Probability: 59.8%
Projection: 30.2
Edge: 7.4%
Game: Bucks vs Kings (10PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features De’Aaron Fox in the Bucks vs Kings showdown. Our betting bot has found value in De’Aaron Fox Over 28.5 Points.
Over the course of the 2023/24 season Fox has averaged 27 points per game. Our model predicts that Fox will be able to exceed this line – predicting 30.2 total points in tonight’s matchup. After only getting 18 points against the Rockets, we can expect Fox to go off tonight. Getting 32 points in their last head to head matchup, Our model suggests wagering on Fox’s over points line.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on De’Aaron Fox Over 28.5 Points, with a detected edge of 7.4% and -111 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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