We’ve got two locks this morning and we’re leaving the speculator out for today due to nothing standing out. We don’t want to give out a pick for the sake of it. We always want to be confident in what we deliver. Let’s have a day!
THE LOCK
Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns OVER 213.5 Total Points (alternate line)
@ $1.80 (Sportsbet) – 8 units
This points total is shockingly low. In 3 out of Miami’s last 4 games they’ve scored at least 106 points. They have to be a motivated team, losing 2 straight games at home to the Indiana Pacers. The Heat have no choice but to respond. They showed us in the bubble that they thrive when facing adversity. They welcome in an elite Western Conference team, the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have had some slip ups defensively over the past 5 games, giving up 122 points to the Pacers and 123 points to the TWolves. CP3 and D-Book will want to make a statement and enforce further pain on Miami’s season. Both rosters are full of talent and we just can’t see a scenario where this game falls short of the 214 total we’re rolling with.
Denver Nuggets v Orlando Magic OVER 216.5 Total Points (alternate line)
@ $1.80 (Sportsbet)
8 units
We love taking a team to bounce back. Denver were a no show at home to a Pelicans team without Lonzo Ball and the Nuggets deserved to lose. Jokic played well but the team defense wasn’t good enough. NBA teams aren’t getting to practice at all with games every second night to finish out the season. So, we feel good that while they acknowledge it’s an issue, until they practice, they won’t be able to do much about it. When the Magic are at home and face a poor defensive team, they score the ball well. Against the Nets they put up 121, vs Utah they had 109 and against the Mavs they scored 124. Expect the battle of the European big men to take centre stage as well, which we’ll discuss more in the Mid-Ranger.
THE MID-RANGER
Nikola Vucevic 30+ points
@ $3.30 (Sportsbet)
4 units
Vuc is having a heroic season for Orlando and has literally put them on his back. The Magic have suffered injury after injury but the one constant has been Nikola getting buckets. He’s averaging a career high 24.5pts per game, so scoring certainly hasn’t been an issue despite not having much support. He faces Nikola Jokic today and if we know anything about Europeans is that they respect the hell out of each other. Off the court they spend plenty of time together but on the court, they give it their all to beat the other. Orlando won’t be in with much of a chance today if Vucevic doesn’t score the ball. As talented as Jokic is, defense isn’t his strength. Take Vuc to drop at least 30!