THE LOCK
Detroit Pistons v New York Knicks OVER 207.5 total points
@ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
16 units
The Knicks are fresh off getting blown out by the Spurs and if we know anything about Thibs, he won’t want to enter the AS break on a sour note. New York has averaged just under 112pts over their last 5 games, so the offense is clicking. Detroit ended their 3-game losing streak last night. They put up 129pts against the Raptors and won the game convincingly. The Pistons have had a nice run offensively as they’ve averaged 110pts over the past 5 games themselves. The total for this game is scary low, it won’t take much for this to be eclipsed – both teams would be looking forward to the AS break, so defense might well be an afterthought. Ride with the over!
THE ACCUMULATOR
Leg one: Toronto Raptors v Boston Celtics OVER 220.5 total points @ 1.90 (Sportsbet)
Leg two: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Total odds: $3.60
Total stake: 4 units
We got a good look at the Raptors yesterday due to picking Lowry Trip/Dub as our speculator. The current situation Toronto find themselves in (with no VanVleet, Siakam and Anunoby) is not a good one. The Pistons embarrassed them putting up 129pts on their way to a 30pt victory and to cap it off they had not one but TWO guys get triple doubles in Dennis Smith & Mason Plumlee. The Celtics have won their past 3 and even though it hasn’t been pretty, they are finding ways win. The Raptors and Celts played a month ago in Boston with both teams fully healthy and the total in that was 220. Now that the Raps are short-handed – we expect (similar to the lock) for defense to be a secondary concern. We are confident the Celtics can get 120+ and feel good that the Toronto offense can bounce back from a poor showing yesterday.
New Orleans have been playing great recently, coming back from down 20+ to beat the Celtics in OT, losing close games to the Bucks & Spurs, beating the Jazz but then yesterday was looking like a letdown against the Bulls. Down by 17 heading into the final Q, the Pels fought back hard to lose by 4pts. Given this recent stretch by NOP, we are very high on them. We love how hard they compete. Coach Van Gundy has even started to put the ball in Zion’s hands to bring it up the court in transition and to initiate the offense. Nobody in the league has an answer for Williamson, so the more the ball is in his hands, the better. His playmaking and ability to read double teams has improved tenfold this season. Miami have been a rollercoaster this year. Bam & Butler are questionable heading into this game – we feel strongly that if one out of two play, none play or both plays, the Pels will get the job done. 3.
THE SPECULATOR
Davis Bertans 5+ threes
@ $5.50 (Sportsbet)
2 units
Bertans has found his stroke lately, he has made at least 5 threes in 4 out of his 8 late games. He attempts just under 8 threes per game. The Wizards need Davis to keep stroking it from deep to open up the court for the rest of his team and it gives them a real third guy next to Russ & Beal when he is cashing from the perimeter. We think we’ve found some real value here, it won’t take much for him hit the mark.