NBA fans must’ve done something right this season, as we’re being served up yet another Game 7 in these playoffs. Not to mention the Conference Finals have also started. Let’s get to our predictions.
➖ odds is what you BET to win $100
➕ odds is what you WIN if you bet $100
Playoffs Game 7: Nuggets vs. Clippers
Dimers’ Suggested Plays
💪 Spread: Nuggets +7.5
💵 Player Prop: Jokic UNDER 24.5pts (+260*)
Spread pick:
Nuggets +7.5 has a 55% probability
The Nuggets have been sensational over the last two games, fighting tooth and nail to send this series to a Game 7. Our predictive model has highlighted the Nuggets at the line as the top pick in this game, rating them as a 55 percent chance to cover.
Player Prop pick (Over/Under):
Nikola Jokic UNDER 24.5pts @ -113
Expect defense to take the spotlight as much as offense. Nikola Jokic has been on fire for Denver but according to our data could cool off a little in this one. The Clippers will be putting a lot of time into Jokic in Game 7, and our model has him only scoring 20 points.
Game 7: Dimers’ take-out
There is nothing in sport quite like a Game 7, and the Clippers have the out-and-out superstars in this game. Having said that, the Nuggets have proven that they are capable of pulling off the upset. Keep your eye on Denver in what should be a high-scoring game.
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Eastern Conference Finals Game 1: Celtics vs. Heat
Dimers’ Suggested Plays
🔥 BEST: Celtics moneyline (-125*)
⛹️♂️ Player Prop: Walker OVER 20.5 points
🔥 BEST: Moneyline
Celtics (-125*) to win has a 55% probability
We should be in for a long series here and our computer is predicting a tight one to kick it off. Our current projected score has the Celtics winning by one point, with a 55% probability that they take a 1-0 lead.
Kemba Walker OVER 20.5pts @ -110
After some struggles against Toronto, look for Kemba Walker to bounce back in against the Heat. Look for Brad Stevens’ to play more through his star point guard considering the strength of Miami’s wing defenders. Our data suggests he will finish with 23, which is clear of his 20.5 over/under points line.
Game 1: Dimers’ take-out
A huge matchup between two storied franchises that will see 2020 as a massive chance to grab the chip. If our projections are anything to go by (they are!), then we are set for an incredible first game and likely an incredible series.
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NBA Betting – How To’s
How ‘The Spread’ works: A spread bet is when you bet on who you think will win after the underdog has been given a hypothetical ‘head start’. In a game, the books are giving Team X a +7.5 point head start against Team Y. In other words, they have 7.5 points added to their final score.
The two options on this market are effectively Team Y to win by 8 points or more, or Team X to get within 8 points or actually win the game.
If a team wins at the spread, they are said to have ‘covered’ the spread.
How ‘The Moneyline’ works: A moneyline bet is simply a bet placed on which team you think will win the NBA game head-to-head. The more likely a favorite is to win according to the sportsbook, the less you can win by betting on them. But the less favored an underdog is, the more you can win if it hits.
If we quote an edge (as a %), this is the difference in the probability suggested by the odds (what the books predict) when compared to Dimers’ predictive modelling = VALUE!
How the ‘Over/Under’ works: you bet on the total amount of points to be scored, in the examples above, by a particular player. The sportsbook sets the total points that they believe the player will score, which includes any OT.
Your bet is on whether the player’s total will be more (Over) or less (Under) than that number, or line, set by the sportsbooks.
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Predictions, picks and suggested bets are brought to you by Dimers.com. Dimers’ predictions are based on 10,000 simulations of this matchup.
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*Odds and probabilities correct at time of publishing.