One of the NBA’s new and exciting rivalries is set to ignite again, with the Pacers and Heat set to go head-to-head in Game One of their playoff matchup.
All eyes will be on the battle between Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren, with two stars not overly friendly when they get on the floor.
Here are our best plays:
🔥 BEST: o216 Total Points @-110
💵 Moneyline: Heat @-180
💪 Spread: Pacers +4 @-106
🏀 T.J. Warren $1 per point
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Best Bet: Over 216 Total Points (-110*) has a 52% probability
Defense has reigned supreme on the two occasions the Pacers and Heat have matched up in the NBA bubble, which means the over/under line is just 216 points. Our model has predicted a 52 percent probability that this game will go over and considering the offensive talent on both sides of the ball, it is a smart pick.
T.J. Warren has been on a tear since the NBA restart and has taken over as the Pacers’ first choice on offense. However, you can’t forget about Victor Oladipo, who at his best is a walking bucket. Meanwhile, for the Heat, Jimmy Butler is back on the floor, while role players and deep-ball snipers Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson have both had stunning moments in the bubble.
Although they’ve played a couple of low-scoring games in the restart, look for this Pacers and Heat matchup to explode.
Moneyline: Heat (-180*) has a 63% probability
Miami impressed early in the bubble despite a tough schedule. They managed to score wins over Denver and Boston before superstar Jimmy Butler returned from injury. With the five-time All-Star back in the rotation, the Heat go to another level, and in this opener will be tough to stop.
Our model has rated them as a 63 percent chance to beat the Pacers in Game One, and at -180, they are the smart Moneyline pick.
Spread: Pacers +4 (-110*) has a 50% probability
Although the Heat look like a tough team to beat, we know the Pacers have the talent to make this into a tight game. Warren and Oladipo are stars, while Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon have the ability to play at the elite level. Depth is somewhat of a concern, but don’t be surprised if this one goes down to the wire.
According to our model, the Pacers are the top pick at the spread. At the time of publishing, they are +4 at -110 odds. We look to be set for a thriller.
There is no doubt that this matchup is going to be one of the highlights of the first round, and it would be a surprise to no one if it went to seven. Game One will set the tone, and our model is predicting a tight, high-scoring game, with Miami likely to come away with the W.
*odds are correct at time of publishing